| 17 June 2010
This came unexpected, at least to me. The two gus in the pic will swap uniforms next year.
Yes, Sixers traded Dalembert to Sacramento for Andres Nocioni and Spencer Hawes.
Not that we didn't try to ship Sam before, not that he was always happy to stay in Philly, as he stated in numerous occasions.
But the timing, and the package we got in return, is surprising.
My first reaction was: "Uhm...".
While we wait for more details, and some statements - other than the usual PR quotes of generic "excitement"... - let's try to break down the trade, staying ready to revisit/update the following thoughts.
FROM A BASKETBALL POINT OF VIEW
1) I don't see how this makes us better. Hawes is basically a more efficient/skilled Jason Smith, surely not a superstar or a difference maker. While Nocioni is a veteran that could indeed bring toughness and occasionally hit a three pointer but will be currently the FOURTH small forward of the roster, besides Iguodala, Young and Kapono, with the first two usually logging a lot of minutes.
I used to like Nocioni as a Bull, he was a nice spark off the bench. I stopped when he was signed to one of those fat multiyear contracts that GMs of this league love to throw around (see Turkoglu etc) - more after the jump.2) obviously, the trade makes the drafting of Favors more likely. Admittedly I don't follow college bball at all, but Turner seem(ed) a lock at #2, and many guys I tend to trust raised questions on Favors in the NBA. This scares me a bit.
3) Sixers NOW have a giant hole in the middle. I've never been a great fan of Dalembert, but he was BY FAR our best rebounder - let's not consider his shotblocking/intimidating ability here, always "balanced" by his infamous goaltending and fouls...
In many, many games last year we saw that, with Sam on the bench, Sixers couldn't grab a defensive rebound to save their lives. Speights & Smith simply don't know how to box out, while Brand looked like he had lost interest in rebounding, "running" to the other half court as soon as any opponent was releasing a shot.
4) Can Favors fill the gap? Over the last years Sixers rarely missed on their draft picks, honestly, so maybe all of my worries will be deleted in case we will pick a big man. But as of now, the Hawes + Brand combo would easily make the Top 3 in a "Worst NBA frontcourt" ranking.
So "In DiLeo we trust", as it happens every summer.
(Not sure what Sixerville bases its "Hawes is a better fit at center" judgement on....)
FINANCIALLY
1) According to Hoophype, Nocioni's contract will pay him 6.85 M in 2010/2011 and 6.6 M in 2011/2012, while the third year (at 7.5 M) is a team option - and it's pretty safe to say that it will NEVER be exercised... That's still a lot of $ for a bench player past his 30's. Jason Kapono Part II, if you prefer.
So if you (rightfully) thought that Dalembert's 13 M were too much, I don't see how you can be happy with the same amount of money committed to Kapono + Nocioni.
Hawes will be in the final year of his rookie deal and the 4 M he is scheduled to make before the qualifying offer can be considered "ok" for his production (10 + 6 + 2 + 1 in 26 min), maybe even a steal. Problem is, Sixers will have to take a decision on him, Young and Jason Smith in the same summer, 2011.
2) the trade - I read - will allow Sixers to save 2.3 M this year. But we are renouncing to play any significant role in the free agency market of 2011. By keeping Sam, remember, we would have had 23 M coming off the books (Green + Sam + Kapono, all expiring).
BOTTOM LINE
I would like to be optimistic and say that I like the move. But I can't.
Honestly, I would have probably kept Dalembert, his trade value would have increased each day, and perhaps skyrocketed around the next trade deadline, February 2011. We could have even let his contract expire, and simply enjoy the cap relief.
I already wrote that I would have been ok with keeping (=resigning) Dalembert even after 2011, at half the price obviously (Kendrick Perkins, Brendan Haywood etc make more or less those $ and have similar efficiency).
I have to tell you that a decent center with some upside and an overpaid bench player don't seem to be a great package for Sam. But probably (and hopefully...) this is the first step of a longer process, so let's wait until the plan (?) will be completed.
In the meantime, goodbye Sam, you drove me crazy countless times but at least you were a good guy. You probably won't be missed much as a player, but you will always have my respect.
